Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | IU +333 PUR -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +21 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -13.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -10.1 (-10.9) | 150.6 (+2.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.1 (-9.9) | 149.6 (+3.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.6 (-9.4) | 147.8 (+5.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.5 (-10.5) | 149.3 (+3.7) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#112) | 21.5 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#56) | 3.56 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#64) | 4.33 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#48) | 0.694 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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