Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -2500 IU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -21.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -18.7 (+1.3) | 155.5 (-17.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -16.0 (+4.0) | 155.4 (-17.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -17.1 (+2.9) | 154.6 (-16.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -17.6 (+2.4) | 155.5 (-17.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | PUR 87 – 66 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#2) | 4.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#1) | 1.53 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.76 (#1) | 1.80 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.702 (#1) | 0.571 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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