Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | IU +180 PUR -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -2.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.3 (+6.3) | 144.4 (-5.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -1.2 (+6.2) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -2.0 (+7.0) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.3 (+7.3) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | PUR 87 – 66 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#31) | 21.6 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#61) | 3.81 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#60) | 5.01 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#67) | 0.658 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 2.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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