Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -800 IU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +29 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -9.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -12.2 (+16.8) | 149.3 (+7.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.5 (+17.5) | 149.2 (+7.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.4 (+17.6) | 150.2 (+6.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -11.2 (+17.8) | 151.6 (+5.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | PUR 87 – 66 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 22.0 (#9) | 15.5 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#10) | 2.29 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#10) | 2.62 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#10) | 0.583 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.13 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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