Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -1600 UCD +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -17.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -15.1 (-8.1) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -14.6 (-7.6) | 139.5 (-0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -15.1 (-8.1) | 134.4 (+4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -15.2 (-8.2) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCI 79 – 69 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCD 75 – 72 UCI |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UCI 88 – 59 UCD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UCD 54 – 52 UCI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UCI 74 – 71 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 14-3 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#58) | -3.8 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#33) | 0.19 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#48) | -0.22 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#26) | 0.509 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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