Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UCD +115 UCI -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -3.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -2.5 (+4.5) | 139.7 (-33.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -1.7 (+3.7) | 138.2 (-32.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -2.1 (+4.1) | 138.1 (-32.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -2.7 (+4.7) | 139.4 (-33.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCI 79 – 69 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCD 75 – 72 UCI |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UCI 88 – 59 UCD |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UCI 73 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UCI 74 – 71 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#143) | 8.7 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#181) | 1.49 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | 1.79 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#206) | 0.583 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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