Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +230 UCI -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +29 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -8.8 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -7.7 (-21.3) | 135.6 (+11.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -8.0 (-21.0) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -8.6 (-20.4) | 132.5 (+14.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -8.1 (-20.9) | 133.8 (+13.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCI 79 – 69 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCD 75 – 72 UCI |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UCI 73 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UCD 54 – 52 UCI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UCI 74 – 71 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-10 | 14-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#233) | 8.1 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#170) | 2.10 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#198) | 2.16 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#169) | 0.597 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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