Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UCD +142 UCI -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -0.1 (+3.1) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -0.2 (+3.2) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.2 (+2.8) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.1 (+2.9) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCI 79 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UCI 88 – 59 UCD |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UCI 73 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UCD 54 – 52 UCI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UCI 74 – 71 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#176) | 2.8 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#150) | 0.47 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#130) | 0.69 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#160) | 0.526 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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