Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -410 UCD +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -7.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -5.9 (+4.1) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -8.1 (+1.9) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -5.4 (+4.6) | 139.3 (+8.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -5.9 (+4.1) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCD 75 – 72 UCI |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UCI 88 – 59 UCD |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UCI 73 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UCD 54 – 52 UCI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | UCI 74 – 71 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#113) | -0.7 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#114) | 0.21 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#115) | 0.38 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#85) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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