Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | GT +340 LOU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -9.8 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.9 (+14.9) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -7.7 (+14.7) | 151.0 (-4.0) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -7.7 (+14.7) | 148.2 (-1.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -8.0 (+15.0) | 147.2 (-0.2) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
| Mar 9, 2022 | LOU 84 – 74 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#118) | 15.9 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#199) | 3.09 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#183) | 3.82 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#245) | 0.644 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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