Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GT -300 LOU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | GT -9.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -7.9 (+8.1) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -6.7 (+9.3) | 140.2 (+9.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -8.4 (+7.6) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -7.2 (+8.8) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
| Mar 9, 2022 | LOU 84 – 74 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-13 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#198) | -6.9 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#185) | -1.59 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#177) | -1.20 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#235) | 0.433 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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