Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -5000 GT +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -24.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -20.5 (-3.5) | 159.4 (-2.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -18.8 (-1.8) | 161.5 (-4.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -22.3 (-5.3) | 160.6 (-3.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -23.0 (-6.0) | 159.2 (-2.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
| Mar 9, 2022 | LOU 84 – 74 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#10) | 0.7 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#25) | -0.18 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#25) | -0.30 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#28) | 0.477 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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