Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +105 GT -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GT -3.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -4.2 (+14.2) | 134.8 (-8.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -3.6 (+13.6) | 137.1 (-11.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -4.6 (+14.6) | 136.4 (-10.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GT -4.4 (+14.4) | 135.3 (-9.3) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Mar 9, 2022 | LOU 84 – 74 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-14 |
| Home | 4-13 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#324) | -1.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#351) | -0.04 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#324) | -0.08 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#321) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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