Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | LOU -120 GT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -1.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -1.2 (+8.8) | 137.5 (+20.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.0 (+8.0) | 137.4 (+20.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.7 (+8.3) | 138.9 (+19.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -1.4 (+8.6) | 138.4 (+19.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#133) | 0.4 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#139) | -0.03 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#137) | 0.20 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#170) | 0.460 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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