Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -115 GT -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -0.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -1.1 (+10.9) | 149.5 (-3.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -0.8 (+12.8) | 151.3 (-5.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -0.5 (+11.5) | 154.0 (-8.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.6 (+11.4) | 152.1 (-6.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
| Mar 9, 2022 | LOU 84 – 74 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-11 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#183) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#237) | 0.74 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#222) | 0.58 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#250) | 0.526 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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