Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +240 DRKE -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -6.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -6.7 (-3.3) | 128.7 (+11.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -5.1 (-4.9) | 131.3 (+8.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -4.5 (-5.5) | 132.6 (+7.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -4.5 (-5.5) | 129.9 (+10.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | DRKE 67 – 63 SIU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SIU 66 – 61 DRKE |
| Jan 15, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 73 SIU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | DRKE 70 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DRKE 92 – 88 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | 7.7 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#191) | 2.51 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#192) | 2.91 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#168) | 0.596 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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