Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | DRKE +105 SIU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -2.1 (-7.1) | 145.5 (-18.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.5 (-4.5) | 143.3 (-16.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.3 (-3.7) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.3 (-3.7) | 147.1 (-20.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | DRKE 67 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 73 SIU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | DRKE 70 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DRKE 75 – 65 SIU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DRKE 92 – 88 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-11 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | 3.3 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#228) | -0.25 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#215) | -0.26 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#241) | 0.490 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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