Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -258 DRKE +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -7.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.0 (-8.0) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -4.2 (-7.2) | 145.3 (+3.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.2 (-8.2) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -5.5 (-8.5) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | DRKE 67 – 63 SIU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SIU 66 – 61 DRKE |
| Mar 7, 2025 | DRKE 70 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DRKE 75 – 65 SIU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DRKE 92 – 88 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | -0.2 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#167) | -0.72 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#183) | -0.62 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#119) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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