Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -230 DRKE +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -5.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -4.6 (-8.6) | 139.0 (-9.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -2.5 (-6.5) | 138.6 (-8.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.3 (-9.3) | 136.3 (-6.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -5.3 (-9.3) | 136.2 (-6.2) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SIU 66 – 61 DRKE |
| Jan 15, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 73 SIU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | DRKE 70 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DRKE 75 – 65 SIU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DRKE 92 – 88 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#110) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#162) | -0.81 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#165) | -0.85 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#160) | 0.459 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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