Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | DRKE -700 SIU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +17 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -9.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -8.5 (+8.5) | 127.2 (-4.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -9.0 (+8.0) | 125.5 (-2.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -9.5 (+7.5) | 129.9 (-6.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -8.3 (+8.7) | 130.1 (-7.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | DRKE 67 – 63 SIU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SIU 66 – 61 DRKE |
| Jan 15, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 73 SIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DRKE 75 – 65 SIU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DRKE 92 – 88 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-1 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#76) | -1.8 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#29) | -0.18 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#38) | -0.23 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#35) | 0.505 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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