Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NICH +425 MCN -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -8.8 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -9.0 (+17.0) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -6.5 (+14.5) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -6.8 (+14.8) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -7.5 (+15.5) | 141.5 (-7.5) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MCN 75 – 65 NICH |
| Jan 13, 2026 | MCN 94 – 68 NICH |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MCN 80 – 71 NICH |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MCN 92 – 76 NICH |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MCN 83 – 62 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 19-1 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#198) | 10.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#193) | 1.45 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#205) | 1.77 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#185) | 0.578 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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