Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NICH +470 MCN -650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -10.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -9.4 (-0.6) | 140.9 (-0.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -9.1 (-0.9) | 142.4 (-2.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -8.7 (-1.3) | 140.6 (-0.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -8.1 (-1.9) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | MCN 94 – 68 NICH |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NICH 71 – 63 MCN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MCN 80 – 71 NICH |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MCN 92 – 76 NICH |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MCN 83 – 62 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 19-3 |
| Home | 6-6 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-12 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#244) | 8.6 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#236) | 1.56 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#252) | 1.86 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#223) | 0.595 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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