Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -1600 NICH +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +26 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -13.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -13.2 (+12.8) | 144.3 (+17.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -11.4 (+14.6) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -11.8 (+14.2) | 146.9 (+15.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -12.2 (+13.8) | 146.7 (+15.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MCN 75 – 65 NICH |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NICH 71 – 63 MCN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MCN 80 – 71 NICH |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MCN 92 – 76 NICH |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MCN 83 – 62 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 12-10 |
| Home | 14-0 | 6-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#67) | -1.1 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#45) | -0.05 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#52) | -0.18 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#40) | 0.501 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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