Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -2500 NICH +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +21 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -17.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -18.0 (+3.0) | 145.0 (+0.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -15.6 (+5.4) | 145.2 (-0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -16.4 (+4.6) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -18.1 (+2.9) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MCN 75 – 65 NICH |
| Jan 13, 2026 | MCN 94 – 68 NICH |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NICH 71 – 63 MCN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MCN 80 – 71 NICH |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MCN 92 – 76 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-4 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-2 |
| Away | 11-3 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#68) | -5.6 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#47) | -0.51 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#35) | -0.93 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#40) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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