Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +120 AMCC -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -1.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -1.2 (+11.2) | 147.3 (+8.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -1.3 (+11.3) | 146.2 (+9.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -1.2 (+11.2) | 146.9 (+9.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -0.9 (+10.9) | 147.7 (+8.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | RGV 64 – 55 AMCC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMCC 63 – 59 RGV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMCC 79 – 74 RGV |
| Dec 16, 2023 | AMCC 86 – 76 RGV |
| Dec 7, 2023 | RGV 76 – 74 AMCC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#223) | 1.2 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#234) | -0.13 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#238) | 0.03 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#244) | 0.499 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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