Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | AMCC -215 RGV +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -5.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -6.2 (-1.2) | 154.8 (-1.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -4.3 (+0.7) | 154.0 (-1.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -4.4 (+0.6) | 153.6 (-0.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -5.0 (+0.0) | 153.6 (-0.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | RGV 64 – 55 AMCC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMCC 63 – 59 RGV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RGV 83 – 73 AMCC |
| Dec 16, 2023 | AMCC 86 – 76 RGV |
| Dec 7, 2023 | RGV 76 – 74 AMCC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#133) | -0.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#197) | -0.18 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#179) | -0.49 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#206) | 0.493 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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