Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -150 LEM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -4.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.7 (+9.3) | 132.3 (+1.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -3.1 (+8.9) | 130.5 (+3.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.7 (+9.3) | 134.1 (-0.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.5 (+9.5) | 134.6 (-0.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | WAG 79 – 78 LEM |
| Jan 24, 2026 | LEM 69 – 67 WAG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LEM 72 – 68 WAG |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LEM 70 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 2, 2024 | WAG 80 – 57 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#340) | -13.5 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#309) | -1.92 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#332) | -2.66 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#308) | 0.407 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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