Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -120 LEM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -3.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -0.8 (+22.2) | 131.6 (+5.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -0.2 (+22.8) | 130.8 (+6.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -0.6 (+22.4) | 132.6 (+4.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -1.6 (+21.4) | 132.4 (+4.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | WAG 79 – 78 LEM |
| Jan 24, 2026 | LEM 69 – 67 WAG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LEM 72 – 68 WAG |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAG 73 – 61 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LEM 70 – 56 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-10 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#293) | -7.0 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#289) | -1.41 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#303) | -1.80 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#302) | 0.422 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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