Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -145 WAG +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -2.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -1.0 (+3.0) | 131.9 (+8.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -0.6 (+3.4) | 131.7 (+8.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -0.3 (+3.7) | 129.6 (+10.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -1.0 (+3.0) | 133.0 (+7.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | WAG 79 – 78 LEM |
| Jan 24, 2026 | LEM 69 – 67 WAG |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAG 73 – 61 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LEM 70 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 2, 2024 | WAG 80 – 57 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-16 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#351) | -12.9 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#332) | -1.83 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#337) | -2.78 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#335) | 0.410 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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