Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LEM -355 WAG +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -6.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -5.8 (-3.8) | 141.5 (-5.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -5.9 (-3.9) | 143.3 (-7.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -5.9 (-3.9) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -5.8 (-3.8) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | WAG 79 – 78 LEM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LEM 72 – 68 WAG |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAG 73 – 61 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LEM 70 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 2, 2024 | WAG 80 – 57 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#258) | -9.6 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#283) | -2.91 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#293) | -3.53 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#286) | 0.365 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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