Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -150 BUCK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +10 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -2.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -3.0 (-13.0) | 143.0 (+17.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.8 (-12.8) | 143.5 (+16.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.9 (-11.9) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.5 (-12.5) | 142.5 (+17.5) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUCK 73 – 69 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#257) | -5.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#318) | -1.10 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#293) | -1.31 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#327) | 0.448 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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