Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK -225 NAVY +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | BUCK -7.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -5.3 (-11.3) | 145.6 (+14.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -6.8 (-12.8) | 144.8 (+15.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -5.9 (-11.9) | 145.2 (+14.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -5.1 (-11.1) | 145.2 (+14.8) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUCK 73 – 69 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#213) | -6.5 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#222) | -1.34 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#220) | -1.59 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#173) | 0.440 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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