Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK -185 NAVY +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -7.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -4.8 (-0.8) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -5.1 (-1.1) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -5.2 (-1.2) | 139.5 (+2.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -4.6 (-0.6) | 141.1 (+0.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#257) | -8.9 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#248) | -2.35 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#248) | -2.88 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#243) | 0.360 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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