Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -395 BUCK +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -11.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.2 (+12.8) | 131.6 (-0.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -10.6 (+10.4) | 132.1 (-1.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -10.3 (+10.7) | 131.8 (-0.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.3 (+10.7) | 131.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUCK 73 – 69 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#209) | -11.0 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#200) | -1.87 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#206) | -2.43 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#209) | 0.424 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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