Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -1100 BUCK +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -17.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -15.2 (-10.2) | 137.7 (+5.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -14.1 (-9.1) | 137.8 (+5.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -15.6 (-10.6) | 135.4 (+7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -14.3 (-9.3) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUCK 73 – 69 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#141) | -12.6 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#129) | -1.94 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#160) | -2.55 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#112) | 0.436 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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