Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK +280 NAVY -355 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +16 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -8.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -6.3 (-9.7) | 135.4 (+0.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -7.5 (-8.5) | 134.7 (+1.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -7.8 (-8.2) | 136.1 (-0.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -9.0 (-7.0) | 134.8 (+1.2) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUCK 73 – 69 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#330) | -0.5 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#319) | -0.02 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#320) | -0.39 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#307) | 0.503 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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