Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -340 NAU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -8.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -7.3 (+10.7) | 146.6 (+9.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -6.4 (+11.6) | 144.9 (+11.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -6.6 (+11.4) | 145.5 (+10.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -6.8 (+11.2) | 144.6 (+11.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | UNCO 92 – 77 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#142) | -3.8 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#119) | -0.69 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#106) | -0.97 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#145) | 0.447 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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