Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -250 NAU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +15 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -6.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -3.6 (+11.4) | 150.8 (+18.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -4.0 (+11.0) | 151.7 (+17.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -3.4 (+11.6) | 150.6 (+18.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -3.3 (+11.7) | 150.8 (+18.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#239) | -6.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#206) | 0.74 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#227) | 0.34 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.537 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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