Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +138 UNCO -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -4.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.8 (-5.2) | 158.0 (-2.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -3.4 (-4.6) | 154.5 (+1.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.7 (-5.3) | 155.9 (+0.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -3.0 (-5.0) | 157.4 (-1.4) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | UNCO 92 – 77 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#319) | -2.0 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#228) | 0.02 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#259) | -0.12 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#224) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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