Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +210 UNCO -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -6.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -6.8 (+10.8) | 144.9 (+13.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -6.7 (+10.7) | 144.9 (+13.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -5.9 (+9.9) | 147.2 (+10.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -4.8 (+8.8) | 147.6 (+10.4) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | UNCO 92 – 77 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#302) | -0.0 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#331) | -0.34 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#319) | -0.34 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#349) | 0.473 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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