Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +140 UNCO -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +10 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -3.1 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.2 (-7.8) | 150.4 (+5.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -3.4 (-6.6) | 146.6 (+9.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.6 (-7.4) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -2.8 (-7.2) | 153.0 (+3.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | UNCO 92 – 77 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#240) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#256) | 0.50 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#254) | 0.62 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#280) | 0.524 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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