Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -1000 NAU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -12.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -11.5 (-10.5) | 144.6 (+10.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -11.7 (-10.7) | 145.2 (+9.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -11.6 (-10.6) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -13.2 (-12.2) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | UNCO 92 – 77 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#142) | -8.7 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#163) | -1.44 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#160) | -1.74 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#192) | 0.411 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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