Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | USM -140 GASO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USM -3.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.7 (+2.3) | 147.6 (-7.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.7 (+2.3) | 149.2 (-9.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -2.8 (+1.2) | 150.9 (-10.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.7 (+2.3) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | GASO 78 – 64 USM |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GASO 88 – 67 USM |
| Feb 18, 2023 | USM 73 – 62 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#269) | -6.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#258) | -0.61 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#271) | -1.17 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#271) | 0.483 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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