Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Sun Belt Conference · Hanner Fieldhouse · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USM -3.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money GASO +143 / USM -170
Model Predictions
Spread Total GASO win
Actual GASO +21 155 Won
Massey USM -1.6 (+22.6)
Massey Totals 144.6 (+10.4)
Bradley-Terry 5%
Weighted B-T 2%
Baseline ML USM -2.4 (+23.4) 141.2 (+13.8) 41%
Baseline Plus ML USM -3.1 (+24.1) 141.1 (+13.9) 42%
Efficiency Plus ML USM -2.4 (+23.4) 139.6 (+15.4) 40%
Baseline Tuned ML USM -2.7 (+23.7) 140.9 (+14.1) 37%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 5, 2025 GASO 7864 USM
Feb 1, 2025 USM 7268 GASO
Feb 18, 2023 USM 7362 GASO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GASO USM
Overall 9-24 16-16
Conference 8-10 9-9
Home 6-7 11-3
Away 2-14 5-9
Neutral 1-3 0-4
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 73.3 69.9
Avg Pts Against 79.2 72.9
Massey -11.9 (#340) -5.9 (#273)
Bradley-Terry -4.03 (#361) -0.12 (#197)
W. Bradley-Terry -5.68 (#362) -0.59 (#230)
RPI 0.360 (#355) 0.476 (#221)
Shooting & Four Factors GASO USM
FG% 39.2% 42.3%
3PT% 32.9% 35.9%
REB / G 31.9 34.5
OREB / G 10.6 11.4
AST / TO 0.63 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.1% 48.3%
TOV% 20.6% 17.8%
ORB% 28.2% 31.8%
FT Rate 18.1% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 18.5%
DRB% 62.7% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 28.8% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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