I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
Sun Belt Conference · Reed Green Coliseum · February 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USM -8.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money USM -500 / GASO +333
Model Predictions
Spread Total USM win
Actual USM +11 135 Won
Massey USM -11.3 (-0.3)
Massey Totals 136.1 (-1.1)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline ML USM -10.0 (+1.0) 140.6 (-5.6) 84%
Baseline Plus ML USM -10.2 (+0.8) 140.2 (-5.2) 84%
Efficiency Plus ML USM -8.1 (+2.9) 137.5 (-2.5) 82%
Baseline Tuned ML USM -10.2 (+0.8) 139.7 (-4.7) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 5, 2025 GASO 7864 USM
Feb 1, 2025 USM 7268 GASO
Dec 30, 2023 GASO 8867 USM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USM GASO
Overall 25-8 17-16
Conference 14-4 9-9
Home 15-0 12-4
Away 8-7 3-11
Neutral 2-1 2-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.4 67.1
Avg Pts Against 67.5 68.3
Massey 5.9 (#90) -1.8 (#207)
Bradley-Terry 1.67 (#51) -0.42 (#218)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.81 (#61) -0.56 (#224)
RPI 0.597 (#27) 0.476 (#227)
Shooting & Four Factors USM GASO
FG% 45.6% 43.1%
3PT% 32.5% 30.7%
REB / G 36.2 34.2
OREB / G 10.7 9.5
AST / TO 1.24 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.5% 48.2%
TOV% 17.2% 16.3%
ORB% 31.2% 26.8%
FT Rate 23.5% 19.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 50.0%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 18.4%
DRB% 71.0% 72.8%
Opp FT Rate 21.5% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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