Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | USM -500 GASO +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USM -11.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -10.0 (+1.0) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -10.2 (+0.8) | 140.2 (-5.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -8.1 (+2.9) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -10.2 (+0.8) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | GASO 78 – 64 USM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | USM 72 – 68 GASO |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GASO 88 – 67 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#90) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#51) | -0.42 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#61) | -0.56 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#27) | 0.476 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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