Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -1000 ALCN +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -12.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -10.5 (-5.5) | 132.6 (+10.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -9.2 (-4.2) | 132.0 (+11.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -11.6 (-6.6) | 131.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -11.4 (-6.4) | 132.5 (+10.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ALCN 78 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SOU 71 – 70 ALCN |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SOU 80 – 68 ALCN |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ALCN 68 – 64 SOU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | SOU 89 – 75 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 9-10 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#212) | -12.6 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#177) | -1.99 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | -2.22 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#183) | 0.417 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.