Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -333 ALCN +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -8.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.8 (+8.2) | 137.9 (+26.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.6 (+8.4) | 136.6 (+27.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.2 (+7.8) | 136.6 (+27.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.8 (+8.2) | 136.0 (+28.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ALCN 78 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SOU 74 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SOU 71 – 70 ALCN |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SOU 80 – 68 ALCN |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ALCN 68 – 64 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Home | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#299) | -15.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#292) | -1.75 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#307) | -2.82 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#238) | 0.467 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.