Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -125 SOU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -2.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.1 (+1.1) | 146.8 (-5.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.0 (+1.0) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.0 (+1.0) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.4 (+1.4) | 145.7 (-4.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ALCN 78 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SOU 74 – 69 ALCN |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SOU 80 – 68 ALCN |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ALCN 68 – 64 SOU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | SOU 89 – 75 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-14 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#319) | -4.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#280) | -0.15 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#292) | -0.45 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#265) | 0.494 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.