Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN +215 SOU -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.4 (+9.4) | 147.7 (+3.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.3 (+10.3) | 146.3 (+4.7) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -4.3 (+9.3) | 144.9 (+6.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.5 (+9.5) | 144.6 (+6.4) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | SOU 74 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SOU 71 – 70 ALCN |
| Jan 28, 2023 | SOU 80 – 68 ALCN |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ALCN 68 – 64 SOU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | SOU 89 – 75 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-18 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -17.2 (#355) | -8.3 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#329) | -1.39 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#329) | -1.53 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#338) | 0.424 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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