Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -163 ALCN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -7.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.9 (+8.1) | 149.0 (-1.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.1 (+8.9) | 147.8 (+0.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.0 (+7.0) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.0 (+7.0) | 149.4 (-1.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | ALCN 78 – 73 SOU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SOU 74 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SOU 71 – 70 ALCN |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ALCN 68 – 64 SOU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | SOU 89 – 75 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#223) | -6.1 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#226) | -0.21 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#243) | -0.13 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#220) | 0.486 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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